Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb was born in 1960 in the Lebanese town Amiun. His family professed Orthodoxy. During the civil war that began in 1975, they were deported. Father Nassim Nicholas Taleb doctor was a medical oncologist, was engaged in anthropological research. Among his ancestors – the politics, representing the interests of the Orthodox community in Lebanon. So his grandfather and great-grandfather on the maternal side were Deputy Prime Minister of Lebanon, paternal grandfather served as Chief Justice, and yet in 1861 his great-great-great-great-grandfather served as governor of a semi-autonomous Ottoman province of Mount Lebanon. Taleb held senior positions at brokerage firms in London and New York and also worked on the Stock Exchange before the company started his own hedge fund “empiricist E-E-C (futures and selling options). He received a Master of Business Administration (MBA) in the Wharton School and received a PhD from the University of Paris. The author of works “dynamic hedging” and “duped accident.

Taleb knows a dozen languages. Fluent in English, French and literary Arabic, speaks Italian and Spanish, reads in Greek, Latin and Aramaic and Canaanite. He is the idea of creating Silvercrest-Longchamp NonGaussian Fund. Positions:
-Executive director and chief trader at Union Bank of Switzerland. Chief Trader (Derivatives) at CS-First Boston, Banque Indosuez
-Executive director of CIBC-Wood Gundy
Trader on the arbitrage in the BNP-Paribas
-Independent market – maker in Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Member of the Editorial Board and Scientific Committee: US Secretary of Defense’s Cross-Disciplinary Highland Panel, CISDM Center U. Mass Amherst, Journal of Alternative Investments, Warsaw Institute of Psychology, Universite Paris-Dauphine DESS 203
Member Board of Directors: Silvercrest-Longchamp NonGaussian Fund, BVI, Centaurus Capital LP Alpha Fund, Centaurus Kappa Fund

Taleb is known for his skepticism and anti-mathematical approach to risk and uncertainty, distrust of the models and statistics, as well as an open dislike for academic financiers.

Taleb does not consider himself a trader, and epistomologom. For him, speculation – a way to achieve independence and freedom. We’ve covered this in his book “fooled randomness”, which became a best-seller on Wall Street and has been translated into 17 languages.

Calling himself “skeptical empiricist”, he believes that scientists, economists, historians, politicians, businessmen and financiers to overestimate the possibility of rational interpretations of statistics and underestimate the influence of unexplained randomness in these statistics. Thus, Taleb continues a long tradition of skepticism, which is professed by Sextus Empiricus, Al-Ghazali, Pierre Boyle, Montaigne and David Hume, who believed that the past can not predict the future. Taleb – a follower of Karl Popper and argues that the theory can not be contested and may be used only conditionally.

Currently Taleb involved in research in the field of philosophy of chance and the role of uncertainty in society and science with an emphasis in philosophy of history and critical study of the role of chance (which he calls “black swans”) in determining the course of history. It is important to note that the “black swans” is not necessarily a negative event or catastrophe, but random luck. In his view, people do not notice these events, considering the world of structured, understandable and normal structure.

This phenomenon Taleb calls the “Platonic delusion” and believes that it generates three distortions:

- Storytelling error: ex post event described in such a way that does not seem wanton

- Misconception player: assimilation of games of chance haphazard chance in life. Taleb believes that a mistake of modern approach to probability theory

- Misunderstanding feedback statistics: confidence that the events in the future is predictable through the study of events in the past.

Randomness – reflected mainly external, non-essential, unstable and single bonds of reality and the expression of the initial point of knowing the object, the result of overlapping of independent causal processes, events, a form of manifestation of the need and add to it.

Game misleading (born Ludic fallacy) – coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book 2007 “Black Swan”. “Ludic” from the Latin ludus, meaning “game”. In a nutshell, is defined as “the misuse of games to simulate real situations. Taleb describes as a misleading concept maps (models) to reality, showing the side effects of human cognition.

The principle is one of the main arguments in the book and a refutation of predictive mathematical models used to predict the future – as well as an attack on the idea of a naive and simplified statistical model in complex areas. For Taleb, the statistics only works in certain areas, such as casinos, where the chances are visible and identified.

In 2006, Black Swan Taleb wrote: “Globalization has created interlocking fragility, reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words, it creates a black swans. We have never lived under the threat of global collapse. Financial institutions are merging into ever-smaller number of very large banks. All banks are interrelated. Financial Biosphere eaten by the gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks, and when one of them falls, all fall. The increasing concentration of capital in the banking environment seems to do financial crises less likely, but when they happen, they become more global and inflict on us a heavy blow. We have moved from a diversified “biosphere” of small banks with various policy lending to a more homogeneous environment of firms, where one resembles another. Indeed, we now have fewer failures, but when they happen … I’m afraid to even think about it. ”

Forecasts Taleb were justified. He reportedly made several million dollars during the financial crisis in 2007-2008, which he explains the use of statistical methods in finance. According to Bloomberg, its Black Swan has earned half a billion dollars to investors. The financial success of Taleb in conjunction with previous projections contributed to its popularity and advancement.

In an article in The Times, Brian Epplyard (Bryan Appleyard) called Taleb most prominent at the moment thinker in the world. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman suggested that the name Taleb list of the best representatives of the intelligentsia, citing “Taleb has changed the way many people think about uncertainty, especially in the financial markets. His book, “Black Swan” is an interesting and bold analysis of how people try to comprehend unexpected events. “

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